https://kaquill.com/blog Notes on predictive trial conversion, Ghost MRR, and product-led growth. en-us Wed, 26 Aug 2026 18:50:06 GMT https://kaquill.com/blog/how-we-compute-the-counterfactual-behind-ghost-mrr https://kaquill.com/blog/how-we-compute-the-counterfactual-behind-ghost-mrr Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT Ghost MRR needs one hard number: would this trial have paid without the discount? Here's how KaQuill estimates that counterfactual — and how we keep ourselves honest about it.